The velocity of evolutionary responses of species to ecological change; testing adaptive limits in time and space

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The velocity of evolutionary responses of species to ecological change; testing adaptive limits in time and space

We will test: 1. What are the estimated rates of evolution of populations of species, based on the genetics of present-day populations, and based on differences between the genetic signatures of adaptive change of historical DNA (using baseline information from ~1880-1930) and modern DNA from the same areas? One population each, ancient and modern, from 50 species. Have all populations been under strong selection during a period of rapid warming? 2. What are the relationships of the present-day genetic signatures of adaptive change (e.g., selective sweep number and size) with the past known ecological responses of those species to environmental change? Do species with the greatest ecological changes show the lowest evolutionary changes; whereas non-responding populations are predicted to have been buffered by genetic changes. 3. What are the relationships of the past (~1880-1930) genetic signatures of species to subsequent ecological responses? Did historically genetically-diverse taxa show more positive subsequent population and distribution changes? 4. How do changes in genetic signatures of selection from the past to the present relate to ecological changes? Have declining species failed to evolve, indicating that appropriate genetic variation was not available to buffer populations from environmental change? 5. Do newly-colonised populations show evidence of strong or repeated genetic bottlenecks, and do they show signs of selection at the same (e.g., affecting thermal responses) or different (e.g., affecting dispersal) loci to populations of the same species within their historical ranges? 6. Is the genetic response to recent climate change correlated across species? To what extent are the targets of selection identified overlapping across the 50 species? Is overlap among genomic regions explained by species' life history, habitat, or phylogeny? Do Laps with different life histories or taxonomies show different dependence on evolutionary change for climate.

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